Neil Malik
NDP or Conservatives: Who has the better plan to fix B.C.'s finances?
NDP or Conservatives: Who has the better plan to fix B.C.'s finances?
Photo: Pexels
The Topline
- B.C.’s most recent fiscal update projected a record-setting $13.8-billion deficit this fiscal year, with provincial debt expected to climb to nearly $236 billion by 2028–29.
- The same fiscal update also downgraded the province’s economic growth forecast for 2026 from 1.3 per cent to just 0.9 per cent.
- If re-elected, the NDP promises to raise taxes on the province’s highest earners to expand public services, while leveraging major private-sector investments in natural resources to generate additional revenue.
- If elected, the Conservatives promise to cut income taxes across the board, reduce government spending, and eliminate regulatory barriers in hopes of stimulating faster and more aggressive economic growth than under the NDP.
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Switch sides,
back and forth
Protect public services. Tax the wealthiest.
The NDP wants to invest more in public services without making anyone pay higher taxes — unless you’re a condo developer or one of the top four per cent of income earners.
Under the NDP's plan, anyone earning more than $190,405 would face a higher tax rate, generating an estimated $1 billion annually by 2028–29, with those earning more than $1 million feeling it especially.
To put it another way — 96 per cent of income earners won’t see any increase, but will enjoy the benefits of better services.
The extra money would help fund expanded health care, including more doctors and nurses, additional primary care clinics, and better care for seniors.
The NDP is also making it clear it’ll protect universal public health care, keeping patients from having to pay out of pocket for medically necessary services.
Gasoline prices are a large driver of inflation, so the party is also promising to suspend 10 cents per litre of provincial fuel tax — but only temporarily.
It’s not easy for any government to bring down the cost of housing. The NDP’s latest idea is a tax on newly built, unsold condos that sit empty for more than a year. To avoid the tax, developers would hopefully lower prices or turn units into rentals rather than leave them vacant.
But if this sounds like a government relying entirely on higher taxes, that’s not exactly the case.
The NDP is also betting on some major economic projects coming to life — including the recently announced LNG Canada Phase 2 expansion — to generate another $730 million in annual provincial revenue by 2028–29.
That might sound like a reasonable approach, but there’s some fine print to keep in mind.
Just prior to the election call, the NDP government’s own fiscal update downgraded B.C.'s economic growth forecast and reduced expected natural gas royalties by $531 million — partly because of falling prices. And yet, the NDP is now betting the opposite happens.
That doesn't mean new LNG investments won't generate any revenue. But it highlights the risks of depending on global energy markets the province can't control. Just ask Alberta what that feels like.
If that economic growth doesn’t pan out, then higher income tax rates might not raise more money, especially if jobs are lost or taxable incomes change.
There’s also that record-setting deficit. Even with these changes, the NDP anticipates an $11.97-billion deficit by 2028–29. That’s hardly any different from the pre-election forecast of $11.99 billion for that same year.
In short — the NDP says it can pay for its new operating promises without substantially worsening B.C.'s already enormous deficit.
But they aren’t exactly promising to fix the deficit either.
Shrink government. Cut taxes. Grow the economy.
Lorne Doerkson's Conservatives think B.C.'s economy isn't growing fast enough while the government is spending too much.
His approach : Let people and businesses keep more of their money, get the government out of the way, and make B.C. a more attractive place to invest.
The centrepiece is a provincial income tax cut worth up to $1,000 annually per person, or $2,000 for a two-income household. That’s not just for the lowest-income earners, either.
Businesses would also get tax relief on equipment, machinery, and software, while the Conservatives would fix regulations they argue are discouraging investment and slowing construction — simplifying the B.C. Building Code, for example.
But if cutting taxes means collecting less revenue, at least at the start, how will they pay for health care and other government services?
For starters, they promise to trim the government's operating costs.
That means a hiring freeze for non-front-line positions, cutting outside consultants, reviewing ministry budgets, and reducing the government's $5-billion contingency allocation to $3 billion.
The party says front-line services would be protected. But it doesn’t mention what happens to existing service levels if the remaining employees can’t absorb the workload.
Also keep in mind that reducing the contingency fund by $2 billion doesn’t automatically save that money. It’s meant for unexpected expenses, like severe wildfires or other emergencies. If the need arises, the money still gets spent.
But still, the Conservatives aren’t promising any cuts to public services.
They would guarantee access to publicly funded health care, including paying qualified private-sector providers to treat patients when surgical wait times exceed established benchmarks.
So how does this math make any sense?
The party is betting on an even higher rate of economic growth from its tax cuts and faster approval times for major projects.
The Conservatives believe their plan would help push B.C.'s economic growth to 3.2 per cent by 2029 — higher and faster than the NDP government's existing forecasts.
That stronger rate of growth, combined with billions in spending restraint, would allow the province to cut taxes while gradually reducing its deficit to $10.8 billion by 2029–30.
But if that growth doesn't materialize, the government would end up collecting less tax revenue without the economic expansion needed to offset it, leaving British Columbians on the hook.
In short — the Conservatives’ plan hinges on a leaner government and stronger private sector to turn B.C.'s finances around.
But only if the economy can grow fast enough to make the math work.
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