Neil Malik
Is it finally time for Alberta to separate from Canada?
Photo via AevanStock, Shutterstock
The Topline
- A group calling itself the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP) launched a petition earlier this month with the goal of triggering a provincial referendum on separation from Canada.
- If the APP collects nearly 178,000 signatures by May, the Alberta government would be required to call a referendum asking Albertans: Do you agree that the province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada and become an independent state?
- Following reports that members of the APP met with U.S. President Donald Trump's administration to discuss a possible $500-billion US line of credit from the U.S. Treasury to help bankroll a new country, B.C. premier David Eby called it an act of "treason."
Switch sides,
back and forth
Albertans are getting stiffed
If you ask the APP, Albertans aren’t just losing out. They’re getting stiffed by Ottawa.
According to the APP’s website , “between 1961 and 2017, Alberta contributed about $630 billion more to the federal government than it received back in federal transfers,” and between 2007 and 2018 that imbalance was “an estimated $240 billion.”
That’s the backbone of their grievance. Alberta pays way more to Ottawa than it receives in benefits.
One of their big examples is the Canada Pension Plan (CPP).
In 2019, the APP says Alberta contributed $7.3 billion to the CPP and received $4.5 billion in benefits, implying an over-contribution of $2.8 billion. In an independent Alberta, APP argues that extra $2.8 billion would stay put.
The group also points to seven examples of federal governance they say limit Alberta’s prosperity. Six are tied directly to oil and gas development, including Bill C-69 (often dubbed the “no more pipelines” act), the oil tanker moratorium off B.C.’s northern coast, and the federal carbon tax.
Their conclusion: “Alberta’s resource-based economy is stifled…leaving Alberta beholden to federal dictates and vulnerable to economic shocks.” Without action, they warn, the province risks “perpetual subservience, economic decline, and social unrest.”
If there is a legitimate financial upside to separation, what does the APP’s roadmap to sovereignty look like?
It starts with nearly 178,000 signatures on a petition, followed by a successful provincial referendum that would give Alberta a legal mandate to begin negotiations with the federal government over jurisdiction, assets, debt, and future governance.
While talks are underway, Alberta would begin assembling the nuts and bolts of a country. Things like a revenue agency, police force, pension fund, and other core institutions.
Albertans would receive their own passports, their own currency (backed by gold, oil, and Bitcoin), and temporarily use the U.S. dollar during the transition.
Mortgages, the APP says , would remain unaffected. Canadian banks would apply for permission to operate in Alberta. Deposits would be protected by a newly created provincial deposit insurance corporation.
Over time, the APP argues , Albertans would see the elimination of the GST, along with personal and corporate income taxes, cutting the average tax burden by 29 to 46 per cent per taxpayer.
The APP isn’t pretending separation would be painless.
But in their view, neither is staying put.
And that’s why roughly three in 10 Albertans say they support leaving Canada and taking control of their own future.
It'll make Alberta poorer
Depending on who you ask, walking away from Canada may not make Alberta richer.
It may make it poorer.
Trevor Tombe, an economist at the University of Calgary, has examined the fiscal claims behind Alberta separation and says the math isn’t mathing.
The APP proposes eliminating nearly $80 billion in income and sales taxes currently paid by Albertans to provincial and federal governments, wiping out more than half of the new country’s total revenues.
At the same time, there are some major costs getting left out of the equation.
There is no mention of what happens to Old Age Security or the Canada Child Benefit, and no explanation for how Alberta would replace roughly $10 billion annually needed to fund those programs.
The APP estimates national defence would cost $3 to $5 billion per year. Tombe notes that meeting NATO’s two per cent of GDP spending target would require closer to $10 billion at the outset.
Todd Hirsch, a Calgary-based economist, adds that Alberta’s fiscal position reflects more than simply adding up the money sent to Ottawa versus money received.
He cites, for example, that Alberta’s population is younger on average, which instantly means lower pension and OAS payments to the province. It also means less of a health care burden compared to other provinces with an older population.
That’s not a result of unfairness. It's just demographics.
Then there’s the legal reality.
Indigenous leaders and constitutional experts argue Alberta cannot simply separate without addressing treaty rights and constitutional protections.
Many Indigenous communities maintain that lands covered by historic treaties are not Alberta’s to unilaterally remove from Canada, and that without consultation and agreement, the legitimacy of any separation referendum is deeply questionable.
Separation would trigger fundamental questions about jurisdiction, consent, and enforcement. None of which can be solved by a single provincial vote.
Yes, Albertans are broadly disgruntled with Ottawa. Polling backs that up.
But dissatisfaction doesn’t untangle constitutional law. And it doesn’t magically stabilize a new country.
That’s why if Albertans are unhappy, they are still better off fixing a bad situation than creating a brand new one from scratch.
