The Topline
- The Liberals swept all three federal byelections held Aug. 31, increasing the Liberals’ majority to 173 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons.
- One of the three wins came from Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, a Quebec riding previously held by the Conservatives, but which has now flipped to the Liberals.
- The following morning on Parliament Hill, Prime Minister Mark Carney told reporters the message from Canadians was “clear” and “they’ve given their support to the government’s plan.”
- Six more byelections will eventually need to be called by Carney to replace other vacant seats in the House of Commons. Three will be in Quebec, two in Ontario, and one in Saskatchewan.
Never miss another side to every story
Sign up for The Level's 5-minute newsletter, 3x per week
Thanks for subscribing!
Check your inbox for an email to confirm you're on the list. If there's no email, check your spam filter just in case, then mark us as 'not spam' so that you never miss an issue.
Switch sides,
back and forth
He’s enjoying the perfect storm
At this point, Carney doesn’t just have momentum. He has the secret sauce any prime minister would happily bottle and save for an election year.
Check out these polling numbers from Abacus Data released on Aug. 30. If an election were held today, 45 per cent of committed voters would vote Liberal. That’s 10 points ahead of the Conservatives, up from seven just two weeks ago.
Carney’s personal rating was even stronger: 53 per cent view him positively, while his government approval rating has risen four points to 56 per cent.
So it’s no shocker the Liberals swept all three of this week’s byelections.
Two of the three victories were expected — Beaches-East York and North Vancouver-Capilano. But Chicoutimi-Le Fjord was supposed to be a tight race.
The Conservatives — who won the Quebec riding in 2025 — dropped to third place this time around, making the Liberal win there a particularly painful result for Pierre Poilievre.
Besides voters, Carney might want to shout out Donald Trump for his current stardom.
Abacus found 45 per cent of Canadians rank Trump and his administration among the country’s three most important issues. Asked which party is best equipped to deal with Trump, 62 per cent chose the Liberals. Just 18 per cent picked the Conservatives.
It’s a perfect political environment for Carney. His doctorate in economics and experience running the Bank of Canada and Bank of England give him serious credibility. Trump gives him an external enemy to defend the country from.
Every new tariff threat, 51st state jab, or social media trolling shifts the conversation away from Ottawa’s shortcomings and towards who Canadians trust the most to stand up to Washington.
And if all of that’s still not bad enough for Poilievre, the economy isn’t doing him any favours either. Canada’s economy grew at an annualized 3.3 per cent in the second quarter, its strongest quarterly growth since 2023.
Back in 2025, another survey from Abacus found Canadians don’t sort themselves neatly into left and right camps. Many hold a mix of progressive and conservative views. Carney understands the assignment.
Earlier this year, The Tyee described Carney as a Liberal increasingly embracing conservative policies, particularly on business, investment and resource development. It’s textbook catering to voters in the middle.
None of this means Carney can never lose. Today’s crisis advantage can become tomorrow’s liability — especially with an unpredictable actor in the White House during uncertain economic times.
But right now, the Liberals have a majority, the economy has shown surprising resilience, Carney’s approval is sky-high, and the biggest economic threat facing Canadians is also the issue on which voters trust him most.
So really, what’s not to like?
Carney can be beaten — but not like this
Believe it or not, but there are cracks in Carney’s armour.
The Liberals haven’t been perfect. From the Abacus Data poll on Aug. 31, Canadians said they disapprove of the government’s performance on housing affordability, the federal deficit, immigration, and crime and public safety.
What really stands out is that only 36 per cent approve how the government is handling the cost of living. That’s important because hat was also the top issue cited as most concerning to Canadians.
But Abacus notes something else too — Canadians who approve of the government’s handling of the U.S. relationship are almost six times more likely to approve of the government overall.
So as long as Trump keeps making headlines in Canada, Carney’s likely to keep dodging the heat.
Putting his eggs mostly in the Canada-U.S. basket gives Carney an enormous asset. But it’s still early days. If the trade war drags on, job losses pile up, or economic pain grows, the asset suddenly becomes a fragile one.
Usually, that’s when the opposition starts making their case.
But the problem for the Conservatives is if the guy making the case is Pierre Poilievre.
Despite winning an 87 per cent endorsement from Conservative delegates in January, Poilievre remains deeply unpopular outside his base. Abacus now reports 46 per cent of Canadians view him negatively.
That popularity gap between him and Carney makes every Conservative attack on Carney a much harder sell. Voters who are unhappy about grocery prices, housing or immigration still have to decide whether they prefer Poilievre over Carney — and right now, enough of them clearly do not.
This might be less of an issue for a new leader whose personality was still being tested, but Poilievre has been through the election ringer already. He led his party to defeat and lost his own seat. He’s been tested.
Replacing Poilievre won’t mean victory is guaranteed. But if the Conservatives want any chance of stopping Carney and the Liberals, a new leader would — at the very least — change the equation overnight by forcing voters to choose between Carney and someone they haven’t already made up their minds about.
Then, the next election becomes a vote on Carney’s record rather than whether Poilievre can do the job. And if Carney’s downsides — not the White House — take the spotlight, Canadians might start listening to the Conservative party’s core arguments on affordability, housing, and government spending.
Mark Carney isn’t unstoppable. But if the Conservatives want to slay the dragon, they’ll need a new game plan — and a new leader.
Do you support journalism that helps Canadians navigate difficult issues with more context and less outrage?
CHIP IN TO SUPPORT THE MISSION ✨
Every dollar goes to explaining, comparing, and helping Canadians form their own opinion.
