The Topline
- Pierre Poilievre won the Battle River—Crowfoot, AB, federal by‑election on August 18, reclaiming a seat in Parliament after losing his long-held Carleton riding in the federal election in April
- He faces a leadership review in January that will determine his future as Conservative leader
People really don't like him
My mom, of all people, said it best: “It was nice not having to listen to that guy for a few months.”
This meagre sample size of one is indicative of a much broader trend reflected in Angus Reid’s Poilievre monitor , which shows the leader’s unlikability consistently high, currently sitting at 57 per cent. His numbers are especially bad among women (hey mom) and the 18-34 year-old set.
Granted, Poilievre handily won his by-election seat with 80 per cent of the vote, beating out a record number of candidates, thanks to efforts from the Long Ballot Committee .
It’s really no surprise either – this is the safest Conservative seat in the country. This is why Damien Kurek vacated the seat to allow the party leader to gain his seat back in Parliament.
But as David Moscrop, writing for TIME , argues, this undermines his viability as party leader and his electability by “having to contest a tap-in putt of a district when months earlier he seemed a shoo-in for Prime Minister.”
He adds that, whenever voters actually meet the guy, “when they get to know him, they don’t like him, which puts his party at a structural disadvantage.” The Tories have been unable to make up ground on Mark Carney and the Liberals in the months since the election, partly as a result of Poilievre’s general unlikeability.
Then there’s the obvious point that, y’know, Poilievre has already lost – not just the entire election, but also his long-held Carlton seat as well.
Why would the party want to run a loser, hmmm?
SO WHAT?
If the conservatives want to have a meaningful chance of winning the next election, PP should do the right thing and make room for a successor. Simple.
He's still the Tories' best bet
Unlikable? Sure – but so was Stephen Harper , and he won three straight elections.
Poilievre may repel swing voters, but he keeps the Conservative base fervently engaged, with the party b reaking donations and fundraising records under his leadership. As far as party momentum goes, Pierre is still the closest thing the party has to a high horsepower engine.
As others have pointed out , losing the election wasn’t entirely Poilievre’s fault. On one hand, anti-Trump sentiment buoyed the Liberal Party at a critical time in the election, just as NDP support collapsed.
On the other, Canada’s electoral math favours urban Liberals and Bloc-supporting Quebec, which eats into Conservative viability.
But in Conservative strongholds, Poilievre is still deeply popular. Remember – he literally just won 80 per cent of the vote in Battle River—Crowfoot (again, despite a record number of candidates on the list). When it comes to fostering a sustained Conservative movement into the Carney years, Poilievre may very well still have enough juice.
As Terry Newman writes in the National Post , “Carney has never had to face the opposition leader’s razor-like questioning in Parliament [...] With the Conservative leader grilling the prime minister day in and day out, [the country’s] problems will only be magnified.”
Right now, Carney enjoys significantly better favourability ratings over Poilievre, but he may very well be in a post-election, mid- ”Elbow’s Up” honeymoon period that could be sandbagged by the fact that just 36 per cent of people believe the country is heading in the right direction.
SO WHAT?
Rather than shop around for a new leader for the third time in five years, it makes sense to stick with a leader still popular with the base, who’s an effective opposition leader, and has the experience to build a war chest against Liberals for the next election.
