Stephen Smysnuik
Will the U.S. midterms mean anything for Canada?
Will the U.S. midterms mean anything for Canada?
Photo: Unsplash
The Topline
- The Democrats have won control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the U.S. midterm elections
- According to CBS News, 89 per cent of voters cited cost of living as a major or crucial factor this election
- The trade war with Canada became a ballot-box issue, especially in border states like Michigan and Maine
- On election day, Carney said the U.S. had moved on some of Canada’s “red lines,” while Trump told Fox News “we're going to make a deal with Canada very soon,” though no agreement has been announced
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Switch sides,
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New allies for Canada
For two years, Canada’s problem has been that nobody in Washington had to listen.
On Tuesday, that all changed.
Take Michigan’s Democratic senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed, who told MS NOW’s Morning Joe that he was interested in “stopping these stupid tariffs with Canada.”
The trade war is Michigan’s problem too, after all. Canada is Michigan’s largest export market for agricultural products. Michigan’s governor-elect, Jocelyn Benson, has even pledged to negotiate directly with Canada on state-level agreements.
Voters had their say and the election results are definitive. Democrats who blamed the trade war for higher prices won Senate races in Michigan, Maine, Iowa, North Carolina, South Carolina, Kansas, Ohio and Texas.
That’s a lot of new allies for Canada.
Congress was already getting restless before the midterms, anyway. In February, six Republicans joined the Democrats to pass a House resolution against the emergency tariffs on Canada.
It’s true that President Donald Trump can still veto whatever reaches his desk. But now at least, the Democrats could make these tariffs much harder for Republicans to defend.
Democratic committee chairs can press the U.S. Trade Representative, for example, who must report to Congress before each review of the U.S.’s existing free trade agreement with Canada.
An AP poll found voters blamed Trump for rising prices, while a September Cato survey found 74 per cent of voters believe the tariffs have raised prices.
That’s a bad combo if you’re the president.
It’s possible the White House got the hint. Trump exempted some Canadian forestry products and agricultural equipment from the 50 per cent tariffs to help Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine keep her seat — one she’s held for 29 years.
She still lost.
There’s no denying the president and the Republicans were battered in the midterms, in part because of the trade war. Optically, they now need a win.
Carney said Tuesday that U.S. demands on language, culture, sovereignty and Canada’s freedom to strike other trade deals are “now off the table.”
“They’re asking less and they’re offering more,” he said.
For the first time in this trade war, Canada isn’t just negotiating with the president.
It’s negotiating with a president who needs a deal as much as Canada does.
Same old Trump
Don’t assume all Democrats actually want all of these tariffs gone.
Opposing Trump’s tariffs isn’t the same as opposing tariffs generally. Since NAFTA was signed in 1992, not all Democrats have cheered on the idea of a free-trade approach to the economy, so it’s hard to say how the party will proceed over the next two years.
Joe Biden, for instance, left Trump’s first-term tariffs largely untouched . Some newly elected Democrats from the Midwest, including senators-elect Sherrod Brown and Abdul El-Sayed, have defended tariffs as a legitimate tool in the right hands.
Trade lawyer Daniel Ujczo told the Globe and Mail that the Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper and autos are strongly backed by key parts of the Democratic base, including unions.
That’s a big deal because those sectoral tariffs are the ones that hurt Canada most. The Democrats introduced a bill in September that would eliminate some of Trump's tariffs, including the 50 per cent duties on Canadian goods, but leave the Section 232 tariffs untouched.
In other words, don’t assume Democrats are completely on Canada’s side here.
And even if they are, they still have to get through Trump, and he’s already said what he plans to do with a Democratic Congress: “I’ll veto them,” he told Fox News on election night.
Overriding a veto generally takes 67 senators and 290 House members. Democrats hold at least 54 Senate seats, so they’d need the support of 13 Republicans, plus dozens more in the House. The numbers don't lie.
Then there are the other politics at play. For weeks, U.S. officials have been accusing Canada of meddling in the midterm elections. Peter Navarro warned Canada would “pay even more dearly” for interfering.
Trump so far hasn’t publicly blamed Canada for election results, focusing his ire on the candidates and Fox News, while also acknowledging the Iran war played a part.
Still, The Atlantic’s David Frum predicted that Trump “will want revenge.”
The midterms may have improved Canada’s odds of a favourable outcome on the trade war, but Trump is still Trump, he still has his veto, and the Democrats may not even agree on how to tackle the tariffs anyway.
So don’t hold your breath.
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