The Topline
- The U.S. House Oversight Committee Democrats released emails from Jeffrey Epstein’s estate on November 12 that include claims from Epstein that Donald Trump “ knew about the girls ” and that a victim “spent hours” at Epstein’s house with Trump
- The emails indicate that Epstein maintained contact with powerful figures , including Donald Trump, long after his 2008 conviction for soliciting prostitution from a minor
- Multiple investigations and court filings since Epstein’s death in 2019 have alleged that he ran a global sex-trafficking operation that included minors
- Journalist Kara Swisher predicted earlier this week that the scandal could take down Trump’s presidency, while the Boston Globe has suggested the Trump political era is ending
Nothing has stuck to Trump like this
For years, the spectre of alleged sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, who ( maybe ) committed suicide in his jail cell in 2019, has haunted the president — and in a way that nothing else really has.
Until now, Trump’s been dogged by controversy for his entire political career, and has survived all of it. He’s cultivated an air of invincibility as a result. By the time of his second inauguration, he’d moved past Teflon Don – now he’s titanium.
But the Epstein scandal is a different animal altogether, in large part because of how horrific it all is.
Trump’s connection to Epstein resurfaced again after the House Oversight Committee released over 23,000 pages of documents from Epstein’s estate, including email exchanges, some of which suggest that Epstein kept tabs on Trump’s movements long after their relationship had eroded.
Earlier this week, the House and Senate passed a bill that demands the release of the files, with only one Republican voting against it – a stunning reversal for the GOP who, all year, had been stonewalling the Democrats efforts to release the Epstein files.
The implications for Trump are ghastly. Because of this, fissures in the MAGA base – some of which is conspiracy-theory oriented, motivated by their belief in Deep State pedophile rings, and demanding justice for the victims — threaten to dismantle his support altogether. Busting up pedophile rings is a core tenant of the MAGA belief system, such as it is, and the implication that the movement’s leader is involved in it in any way is a serious political problem for Trump.
And yes, there remain MAGA cultists who’ll follow their orange Adonis whichever way he moves, but the cracks in Trump’s armor are far too significant this time, and the implications far too dark and distressing, for this man to survive this.
Marjorie Taylor Green, the most high-profile representative of the pedo-ring arm of the MAGA movement, now has broken with the pack , at least for now, and at least in part over the Epstein issue. Trump’s approval rating is at its lowest as a result of the Epstein scandal, as well as his handling of the economy.
The president clearly seems cornered this past week, lashing out in ways that are unusual even for him. When asked by one female Bloomberg reporter about the emails, he told her, “ Quiet, piggy .” He’s calling for the hanging of his political enemies. It’s not great.
For many, including Mark Epstein , Jeffrey’s brother, the GOP’s reversal on this issue indicates that some level of doctoring of the emails is underway. But even if that’s true, and the public is presented with a heavily redacted version of the emails, this won’t kill the story. If anything, it’ll be seen as more proof that the administration is hiding something.
Nothing can take this guy down
Trump’s entire administration is designed to defend, deny, and deflect. It’s been happening since Day One of his first term, and it’s clearly happening right now. Look at Attorney General Pam Bondi twist herself into a pretzel to defend over her reversal to release the files – after claiming earlier this year that they didn’t exist.
Trump’s entire method for survival is to deny everything, all the time, regardless of the evidence. This has been confoundingly effective for him. He’s survived just about every scandal he’s faced. Every single one of them .
And yes, if this scandal does feel different, that’s because, well, it is. This has to do with the victimization of children. It’s too horrible to even think about – and because it’s been too horrible to think about, it hasn’t been thought about or talked about, ever, in any meaningful way in our culture. That has changed, at least for now, as a result of this scandal. And the connections to Trump are obvious for anyone paying any attention at all.
And yet! And yet… As Brynn Tannehill argues in The New Republic , Trump will do everything in his power to hide any evidence directly tying him to any Epstein-related crime. He’ll refuse to release the images. He’ll drag that fight out in court for as long as necessary. He’ll “have his minions work to destroy all proof that the evidence ever existed.”
Even if the House receives any clear evidence, Trump’s denial machine will work overtime – fake news, fake images, fake fake fake. It won’t convince everyone, obviously, but it may muddy the waters just enough for him to slither out from under this one.
It really comes down to the GOP and how they’ll act. But Trump has consolidated his power. He controls the GOP. Anyone on the right who speaks out against him is subject to death threats. So why would they now? Because his approval rating is at an all-time low? Maybe in normal times.
But these aren’t normal times. We can learn a lot from history, and the lessons it teaches us here is that it’s unlikely anything can take this guy down, except death itself. That’s not to say the Epstein scandal won’t haunt him until his dying days, and may very well tarnish his legacy. But will it take down the presidency? Errrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
